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Halftime Fulltime fixed matches Variable odds, variable stakes
The equations and calculator described relying on all bets having the same odds and same stake percentage. How robust will they be under real world scenarios where both may vary? Testing against Monte Carlo simulations reveals that odds can vary considerably without having too much impact on the reliability of the calculator’s outputs. But only provided the stake percentages are all the same. Obviously, that will not be the case with Kelly staking.
The calculator is also robust for variable stake percentages. For example, those advised by the Kelly strategy, provided the odds don’t vary too much. A typical example would be Asian Handicap fixed matches or point spreads, where most odds are close to 1.95, with minimal deviation.
Reliability is weaker when EV for these bet types also varies. But again provided neither the odds nor the EV for those bets varies too much. The calculator offers a reasonable method of providing quick estimates of performance expectation.
We know that defining expectations from level staking is relatively straight forward. However, this article has shown that we can do the same for percentage staking too. Whilst level staking performances will be normally distribute, those from percentage staking are distribute log-normally.
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